How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.